Tourism Market Under Global Turmoil: A Wavelet Quantile‐on‐Quantile Analysis of Economic, Geopolitical, and Climate Risks

ABSTRACT This study examines the impacts of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), Geopolitical Risk (GPR), and Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) on leading tourism stock markets in the US, Italy, Türkiye, the UK, and Japan using monthly data from July 2009 to October 2025. The study employs Wavelet Quantile‐on‐Quantile Regression (WQQR) and Wavelet Quantile‐on‐Quantile Granger Causality (WQQGC) to analyze relationships across various frequencies and market states. WQQR indicates that risk and uncertainty impact on tourism market are country‐specific, regime‐dependent, and time‐varying. Short‐term impacts are largely neutral, except at extreme quantiles; long‐term impacts are predominantly negative across all markets. WQQGC analysis confirms these findings. Consequently, the study emphasizes dynamic, regime‐dependent tourism policies that prioritize transparent regulatory frameworks, strategic market diversification, and sustainable transition financing. Strengthening institutional resilience and maintaining predictable policy environments are essential to mitigate the long‐term erosive effects of multidimensional global risks on the tourism sector.