Potential distribution of Amomum Roxb. species in China under climate change: a GIS-based ecological niche modeling approach

Climate change plays a critical role in shaping the geographical distribution and ecological dynamics of plant species. Amomum Roxb., a genus with important medicinal and culinary uses, is particularly sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation. This study compiled occurrence records for 24 Amomum Roxb. species in China to analyze their overall distribution pattern. From these, we selected several key species for detailed ecological niche modeling using DIVA-GIS and MaxEnt to project their suitable habitat shifts under future climate scenarios. A. villosum, A. tsaoko, and A. longiligulare had the widest geographic distributions, primarily in southern China. Modeling results indicate a moderate expansion of suitable habitats for A. longiligulare (+ 12.83%, 17.8 km²) and A. tsaoko (+ 5.43%, 10.1 km²) by the end of the century. In contrast, sharp reductions are projected for A. gagnepainii (− 40.7%, 48.6 km²) and A. kravanh (− 22.27%, 16.7 km²). The most influential bioclimatic factors were the minimum temperature of the coldest month (BIO6) and annual temperature range (BIO7), highlighting the vulnerability of these thermophilic plants to extreme temperature fluctuations. These findings provide critical insights for biodiversity conservation and suggest targeted management strategies for climate-resilient cultivation of Amomum Roxb. resources.