Spatiotemporal differentiation of regional carbon storage and its driving factors based on a case study of the Fujiang River Basin

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon storage and its driving factors is crucial for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). As an important tributary of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, the Fujiang River Basin plays a significant role in ecological protection and sustainable development due to the spatiotemporal evolution and future trends of its carbon storage. Based on the land use data of the Fujiang River Basin from 2000 to 2020, this study simulated and analyzed the carbon storage under four scenarios for the year 2030: natural development scenario (NDS), ecological protection scenario (EPS), farmland protection scenario (FPS), and urban development scenario (UDS), using the InVEST and PLUS models. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the carbon storage in the Fujiang River Basin first increased and then decreased, with a total increase of 0.44 Tg over 20 years. The spatial distribution showed a significant pattern of “high in the upper reaches and low in the middle and lower reaches”. (2) In the future scenario predictions, the carbon storage under the NDS and EPS will show an increasing trend, while that under the FPS and UDS will show a decreasing trend. Among them, the total carbon storage under the EPS will be the highest, reaching 1,052.33 Tg, demonstrating obvious protective benefits. (3) The spatial differentiation of carbon storage in the Fujiang River Basin was influenced by multiple factors, with DEM being the key factor and having the strongest explanatory power when interacting with other factors. The research results provide important scientific basis for ecological protection, land use planning, and sustainable development in the Fujiang River Basin. By identifying optimal pathways, this study supports regional efforts to achieve the "dual carbon" goals, ultimately contributing to climate change mitigation, terrestrial ecosystem conservation, and the broader SDG agenda.