Spatiotemporal patterns of human wildlife conflict around Kasungu National Park, Malawi

Abstract Human–wildlife conflict (HWC) provides conservation and livelihood challenges around Kasungu National Park (KNP) in Malawi, where communities largely experience crop damage and livestock predation. This study investigated the spatio-temporal patterns of HWC around KNP using 2059 HWC incidents recorded from 2018 to 2024, and supplemented with community survey data. The spatial analysis, using the Nearest Neighbour Ratio (NNR) method, revealed significant clustering of HWC cases (NNR = 0.25–0.54, p < 0.001). Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) visualised HWC changing hotspots along the KNP eastern boundary. Temporal analysis showed significant seasonal variation in HWC (Kruskal–Wallis χ 2 = 10.20, df = 2, p < 0.006), and community members perceived an increase in HWC (92.8%). Spearman correlation showed rainfall (rho = − 0.365, p < 0.001), distance to permanent water sources (rho = − 0.361, p < 0.001), and distance to villages (rho = − 0.321, p < 0.001) as the most significant predictors of HWC. Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) explained 67.4% of the deviance in HWC intensity (adjusted R 2 = 0.661), confirming statistically significant non-linear relationships for these variables ( p < 0.001). African savanna elephants ( Loxodonta africana) accounted for 83.4% of HWC incidents. Despite data limitations, the study findings provide an integrated spatial-socio ecological assessment of HWC around KNP and offer actionable guidance for targeted mitigation, including electric fencing, ranger deployments and community engagement.