Multi‐Country‐Multi‐City Characterisation of Heat Stress and Exposure in Africa
ABSTRACT This study presents the first continent‐wide assessment of long‐term (1974–2023) summer heat stress in Africa using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) derived from ERA5‐HEAT reanalysis datasets. Employing a grid‐specific definition of summer, we analysed UTCI trends across spatial (continental to city scale) and temporal (decadal to hourly) dimensions. While annual UTCI anomalies range 0.2°C–1.6°C, substantial intensification emerges at finer scales. The frequency, duration and spatial extent of ‘very strong’ (38°C–46°C) and ‘extreme’ (≥ 46°C) heat stress have increased markedly, particularly, in the Sahel. Heat‐stressed hours (UTCI > 32°C) rose by 2%–25% across most countries, with extreme events doubling in 3–5 and 6–8 days episodes. City‐level analyses reveal escalating risks in large urban centres like Cairo, Lagos and Kano. As climate projections indicate further intensification, the findings underscore the urgent need for targeted heat‐health adaptation and early warning systems to protect vulnerable populations across the continent.
Authors
- Oluwafemi E. Adeyeri (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9735-0677)
- Emmanuel Olaoluwa Eresanya (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5942-0849)
- Oluwafemi Benjamin (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4725-8004)
- Tobi Eniolu Morakinyo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7929-2832)
- Charles Onyutha (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0652-3828)
- Kazeem A. Ishola (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3264-0910)
- Akintomide A. Akinsanola (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0192-0082)
- Mojolaoluwa Toluwalase Daramola (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2473-5453)
- Patricia Nying'uro
- Brian Odhiambo Ayugi
- Bobde Vishal (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3140-2315)
Institutions
- Australian National University (AU)
- Department of the Treasury (AU)
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (CH)
- Kenya Wildlife Service (KE)
- National University of Ireland, Maynooth (IE)
- Trinity College Dublin (IE)
- African Academy of Sciences (KE)
- University of Illinois Chicago (US)
- Kyambogo University (UG)
- Texas A&M University (US)
Publication Details
- Journal
- International Journal of Climatology
- Published
- 2026-04-21
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70385
- Primary Topic
- Urban Heat Island Mitigation
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- Australian Research Council