Estimating Cancer Mortality Risk Associated with Arsenic Concentration in Topsoil

One major pathway of human exposure to arsenic (As) is through direct or indirect contact with contaminated topsoil. This study utilizes arsenic concentration data measured in the topsoil of rural regions in Greece to identify critical threshold levels associated with significant increases in cancer mortality rates. Topsoil element data were obtained from the GEMAS (Geochemical Mapping of Agricultural and Grazing Land Soil) database. Age-stratified cancer mortality rates were extracted for 60 small municipalities and communities with populations under 20,000, covering a 15-year period (2000–2015). Poisson and nonlinear growth models were employed to fit and predict mortality across all age groups using 53 different topsoil elements. Statistical analyses of model performance, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis reveal a significant association between topsoil As concentrations and cancer mortality among younger age groups (0–29 and 30–39 years). Specifically, As concentration of 12.7 mg kg− 1 is associated with a 50% increase relative to median mortality, while 19.5 mg kg− 1 corresponds to a doubling of cancer mortality rate in the 0–29 age group. For the 30–39 age group, 18.2 mg kg− 1 is related to a 50% increase, and 29.2 mg kg− 1 to a 100% increase in cancer mortality. The findings underscore the public health significance of As concentration in topsoil and highlight the need for targeted environmental monitoring and preventive interventions.