Legacies of Punishment Vulnerability: Revisiting the Seven Neighborhoods Study

In 1979, a group of men incarcerated in New York state (NYS) prisons analyzed the relationship between neighborhoods and incarceration, finding that 75 percent of the NYS prisons’ population came from just seven neighborhoods in New York City (NYC). Inspired by this study, we combine novel archival data with census tract imprisonment data to examine the geography of incarceration in more recent years. Our findings reveal a marked spatial deconcentration of imprisonment since the original study. By 2020, 75 percent of people imprisoned in NYS came from 1,551 census tracts—far exceeding the spatial area covered by the original seven neighborhoods containing about 300 tracts. Using spatial lag regression and cluster analysis, we identify over 20 cities with significantly high imprisonment rate clusters. Despite this geographic shift, some tracts within the original seven neighborhoods continue to have among the highest incarceration rates in the state. Our findings both challenge existing urban theories linking concentrated punishment to urban metros and highlight the durability of punishment vulnerability in place.