Structural Transformation and Spatial Dependencies in Turbulent Times: Evolution of Regional Inter-Industrial Linkages in Greece

Abstract Regional economies are increasingly exposed to volatility and prolonged shocks, yet the role of intersectoral linkages and their spatial interdependencies in shaping adjustment remains underexplored. This study analyses the evolution and spatial structure of inter-industrial dependencies across Greek NUTS-2 regions during 2008–2018, a period of deep recession and uneven recovery. Using regional input-output models, the analysis estimates sectoral output multipliers to identify key drivers of economy-wide effects and to trace their evolution over time. Spatial diagnostics detect clustering patterns in multiplier dynamics, while correlation and spatial correlation analyses explore the relationship between structural change and regional gross value added performance. Results indicate that the crisis was associated with a modest weakening of overall inter-industrial linkages, alongside a reconfiguration of production structures. The industry sector emerged as the dominant source of multiplier effects, while construction and finance experienced a substantial decline in network importance. Information and communication maintained relatively steady multiplier strength, suggesting their growing role within regional production systems. Spatial analysis indicates persistent industrial polarization and sector-specific clustering, pointing to path-dependent and geographically uneven adjustment processes. Correlation analysis shows weak associations between multiplier growth and own-region economic performance, but positive relationships with neighbouring regions’ growth, underscoring the importance of spatial spillovers. By integrating production-network and spatial perspectives, the proposed analytical framework offers a diagnostic tool for assessing regional economic restructuring and supports the design of place-based resilience policies that explicitly account for intersectoral linkages and cross-regional spillover mechanisms.