Coupled Thermo–Hydro–Mechanical Analysis of Leak-off-Induced Fracture Width Evolution and Lost Circulation in Depleted Reservoirs

This study develops a fully coupled thermo–hydro–mechanical (THM) finite-element model to investigate fracture-induced fluid loss in depleted formations. To address the issue of assuming a homogeneous, unfractured medium, this approach incorporates the effects of pre-existing or induced fractures. By integrating thermoelastic stresses, fluid flow, and transient heat transfer, the model provides a more accurate simulation of coupled interactions, enabling a deeper understanding of stress evolution and fracture aperture behavior under temperature variations. The results show that pressure depletion reduces horizontal principal stresses in an approximately linear manner, with the minimum horizontal stress being more sensitive. The influence of wellbore pressure is concentrated in the near-wellbore region (r/rw < 2), where it increases circumferential stress at low azimuths and exhibits an almost linear positive correlation with fracture aperture. Fracture length has a negligible effect on pore-pressure variations (≤0.19 MPa) but increases circumferential stress at high azimuths and enlarges the aperture near the wellbore. Temperature effects, through thermoelastic stresses, dominate local stress redistribution, with the 90° azimuth showing the strongest sensitivity. Higher injection temperatures increase circumferential and radial stresses while decreasing near-wellbore aperture, whereas lower temperatures produce the opposite response. Although temperature differences cause only minor changes in pore pressure and far-field stresses, they exert first-order control on near-wellbore width evolution and the likelihood of lost circulation. These findings indicate that coordinated optimization of wellbore pressure, fracture dimensions, and injection temperature under depletion conditions is important for mitigating fracture-induced fluid loss and improving drilling safety and efficiency.