Sandy beaches' chaos: shoreline-sandbar coupling inferred from observational time series

Abstract. Sandy shoreline–sandbar systems exhibit complex variability arising from the interplay between hydrodynamic forcing and intrinsic morphological feedbacks. Using long-term satellite-derived shoreline and sandbar observations, we applied global polynomial modeling to reconstruct low-dimensional deterministic dynamics for 4 contrasting coastal sites. The resulting autonomous models reproduce key morphodynamic features, including self-sustained shoreline oscillations, shoreline–sandbar coupling, and intermittent transitions between quasi-stable configurations. Nonlinear stability analyses reveal that these systems behave as chaotic oscillators, characterized by locally divergent yet globally bounded trajectories. Energetic episodes correspond to rapid shoreline–sandbar exchanges, whereas long low-energy states reflect stable attractor confinement. Together, these results demonstrate that sandy coasts are governed by deterministic but chaotic dynamics, in which internal coupling and self-organization control both variability and finite predictability. The proposed framework offers a physically consistent and data-driven approach to characterize and compare coastal morphodynamics within a unified nonlinear dynamical perspective.