The evolution logic and optimisation strategies of China’s emergency management system from the perspective of Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (1949–2023)

The emergency management system constitutes the core of national emergency preparedness. Analysed through the lens of Punctuated Equilibrium Theory (PET), this study proposes a dual-driver model that integrates both exogenous focal events and endogenous ideological shifts-an amendment extending PET to account for top-down, state-led punctuations in China's governance context. Since 1949, the system has followed a pattern of gradual equilibrium, policy punctuation, and new equilibrium reconstruction. Four equilibrium periods are identified: disaster-specific management (1949-2002); "One Plan, Three Systems" integrated management (2003-2012); holistic national security outlook (2013-2018); and "Big Security - Big Emergency" integrated governance (2019-present). Three major punctuations and one institutional restructuring are traced. Key characteristics include policy image transformation from single-hazard response to integrated governance, policy venue expansion from unitary centralised management to multi-party collaborative governance, and the increasing salience of focal events. Future optimisation should focus on expanding the policy venue, enhancing scientific policy design, and fostering bidirectional empowerment between top-level design and grassroots momentum.