Exploring the longitudinal relationship between media use and conspiracy beliefs about the energy transition: Results from a 4-wave panel study

Introduction The large-scale transformation of energy systems is central to mitigating climate change, yet its success depends on public trust and support. One factor that can be problematic in this context is energy transition conspiracy belief. For this reason, this study examines how widespread this phenomenon is and how it relates to media use over time. Methods Drawing on four waves of a nationwide German panel survey, we apply Random Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel Models (RI-CLPM) to disentangle stable between-person associations from dynamic within-person changes over time. Results The results show not only that energy transition conspiracy belief is widespread, but also strongly associated with stable patterns of media use. However, within-person analyses reveal almost no causal, time-variant effects—suggesting that these associations reflect enduring dispositions rather than short-term changes. Discussion Beyond its empirical contribution, the study advances environmental communication research by demonstrating how individual media diets shape the meaning-making processes surrounding sustainability transformations.