Does innovation-driven resilience in agricultural industry chains contribute to grain production efficiency? Evidence from non-linear and spillover perspectives

Grain production efficiency (GPE), a fundamental pillar of national food security, faces multiple challenges, including natural hazards, heightened market volatility, and increasingly stringent resource and environmental constraints. Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces spanning 2012–2022, this study examines the relationship between GPE and the resilience of agricultural industry chains (hereafter referred to as AICR) from both non-linear and spatial spillover perspectives. We construct an analytical framework that decomposes GPE into changes in technical efficiency and technological progress, combining the biennial non-radial directional distance function with the Luenberger productivity indicator. Furthermore, we investigate whether AICR enhances GPE and explore the underlying mechanisms through which this effect occurs. The results reveal several key findings. First, a 0.1-unit increase in AICR leads to an average increase of 0.2246 in GPE. Specifically, the resistance, adaptability, and recovery components of AICR exhibit coefficients of 0.1133, 0.0953, and 0.0805, respectively, indicating that each dimension contributes positively to efficiency improvement. Moreover, when AICR exceeds the threshold value of 0.3596, its marginal impact on GPE becomes significantly stronger, demonstrating a pronounced non-linear effect. Second, AICR promotes GPE primarily through technological innovation, highlighting its role in facilitating productivity-enhancing advancements. Third, the positive effect of AICR on GPE is more pronounced in rural areas characterized by moderate rainfall, extreme drought conditions, reduced exposure to grain disaster risks, or insufficient agricultural financial support. Finally, AICR generates a significant spatial spillover effect on GPE, with estimated impacts of 0.6362 within a 200 km radius and 0.3372 within a 300 km radius. This effect reaches a semi-decay state before gradually diminishing at approximately 700 km. Overall, this study provides valuable insights for developing countries seeking to construct food security systems that integrate resilience, technological progress, and production efficiency. It also offers empirical evidence supporting the role of resilient agricultural industry chains in strengthening the global food system’s capacity to withstand risks and achieve long-term sustainability.