Local Drivers of Municipal Consolidation: County-to-District Conversion in China

Municipal consolidation, a widespread form of local government restructuring, has attracted growing scholarly attention worldwide. The majority of research on municipal consolidation investigates impacts instead of motives. Using prefecture- and county-level data from China, this study comprehensively examines the local drivers of county-to-district conversion (CTD) events during the 2010s, a period marked by a significant wave of CTDs. The results show that cities with a developable land shortage, a single district, or a higher economic ranking within a province are more likely to implement CTD. All else equal, counties in closer proximity to the central city, more lagged behind the city in development, or having a higher fiscal revenue per capita are more likely to be consolidated. Together, these factors explain about 40% of the odds of CTD at both the city and county levels. These findings highlight the importance of local incentives and characteristics in shaping jurisdictional changes and provide guidance for mitigating selection bias in future impact evaluations of municipal consolidation.