Assessing the economic viability of thermography-based leak detection for district heating systems

District heating systems (DHSs) play a central role in Europe’s sustainable heat transition, yet pipeline leaks threaten their efficiency and reliability. Thermography-based leak detection (TLD), particularly via remote sensing, has emerged as a promising non-invasive localisation approach, however its cost-effectiveness remains unexplored. This study presents the first quantitative economic assessment of TLD for DHS pipeline leak detection based on newly collected empirical data centred around Central European German-speaking countries. To this end, leak growth and associated ongoing and repair costs are modelled and a break-even analysis is performed to compare TLD to baseline operational scenarios. The results show that TLD can recover its costs within months after deployment, even under conservative assumptions, and consistently outperforms passive leak response strategies. Based on these findings, the study offers recommendations for integrating TLD into network monitoring strategies and contributes to the broader evaluation of innovative and cost-efficient leak detection methods for DHS operators. • First economic assessment of thermography-based leak detection (TLD) for district heating. • New empirical study used to model pipeline leak growth, repair costs, and cost dynamics. • Break-even analysis shows TLD amortises within months compared to baseline scenarios. • Practical recommendations are provided to support operators in decision-making.