The Low-Carbon Policy and Urban Industrial Transformation: Evidence from China’s Low-Carbon City Pilot Using Double Machine Learning

China’s Against the backdrop of the global low-carbon transition, balancing ecological protection and economic development has become a critical challenge. This study aims to examine whether and how the Low-Carbon City Pilot (LCCP) policy enhances urban industrial transformation momentum. Using panel data from 283 Chinese cities during 2008–2023, we employ a double machine learning (DDML) approach and use industrial robot installation density as a proxy for industrial development momentum. The results show that the LCCP policy significantly promotes industrial transformation and upgrading. Mechanism analysis indicates that the policy strengthens transformation momentum by enhancing government support and increasing public environmental awareness, particularly in cities with lower innovation costs. The effects are more pronounced in resource-based cities, non-old industrial bases, and economically developed cities, while also exacerbating regional disparities as more developed cities benefit more. These findings provide important implications for achieving coordinated development between carbon reduction and industrial transformation.