Quantitative Health, Safety and Economic Risk Assessment of LPG Refilling Stations in Abia, Bayelsa and Delta State under BLEVE Scenarios

Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) refilling stations are increasingly established across Abia, Bayelsa and Delta States to meet rising domestic and industrial energy demands. However, the potential occurrence of Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion (BLEVE) presents significant health, safety and economic risks, particularly in densely populated areas. This study presents a quantitative risk assessment of selected LPG refilling stations across Abia, Bayelsa and Delta States using fireball modelling and probit analysis to estimate thermal radiation impacts, fatality probability, injury levels and economic loss.Key parameters evaluated include fireball radius, duration, lift height, LPG capacity, mass, surface emissive power, heat flux, thermal dose and projected fragment distance. Results show that fireball radii ranged from 41.6 m to 616.9 m, while fireball duration varied between 6.5 s and 56.7 s depending on LPG capacity. Larger installations such as IM1 (2000 m³ equivalent capacity) generated fireball lift heights exceeding 1200 m with high fatality probit values (>3.8). In nearly all cases, the distance from fireball centre to target object exceeded the measured object distance (X > D), indicating substantial thermal radiation impact and potential economic damage. Fragment effects were generally insignificant due to short projected fragment distances relative to object distance. The findings demonstrate that thermal radiation from BLEVE poses severe life safety and asset risks, particularly for high-capacity installations located near populated or commercial structures. The study underscores the need for stricter siting regulations, improved setback distances, and enhanced emergency preparedness planning for LPG infrastructure in Nigeria.