Social inclusion, welfare states, and Ecosocial adaptation: a global analysis

Abstract Climate change is an unequal crisis, with the greatest risks and fewest resources concentrated in the Global South. This study examines whether cross-national differences in social inclusion and welfare regimes explain variation in climate adaptation readiness and vulnerability. Using a multiply imputed panel of 173 countries (1995–2020), it applies Correlated Random Effects models to assess how inclusion and welfare regimes relate to adaptation outcomes across the Global North and South. Results show that inclusive regimes are significantly associated with higher adaptation readiness and lower vulnerability, even after controlling for income, politics, and OECD membership. Results also vary significantly between welfare regimes. The findings suggest adaptation is fundamentally institutional and sociopolitical, not only technical or economic. Institutionalized inclusion functions as an “adaptation infrastructure, “suggesting that embedding social inclusion is a precondition for climate resilience.