Spatiotemporal Variations and Environmental Evolution of Seaweed Cultivation Based on 41-Year Remote Sensing Data: A Case Study in the Dongtou Archipelago

The rapid expansion of seaweed aquaculture has profound impacts on coastal ecosystems, yet the lack of long-term, high-precision spatiotemporal monitoring methods has constrained systematic understanding of aquaculture dynamics and their environmental effects. This study integrated Landsat (1984–2025) and Sentinel-2 (2015–2025) imagery with an attention-enhanced U-Net deep learning model to achieve 41 years of continuous monitoring of seaweed aquaculture in the Dongtou Archipelago, Zhejiang Province, China. The model achieved high extraction accuracy for both Landsat and Sentinel-2 aquaculture areas (F1 scores of 0.972 and 0.979, respectively). On this basis, the cultivation zones were further classified into Porphyra sp. and Sargassum fusiforme cultivation areas by incorporating local aquaculture planning and field survey data. Results showed that the aquaculture area underwent three developmental stages: slow initiation (1984–2000, <3 km2), rapid expansion (2001–2015, 3–8 km2), and high-level fluctuation (post-2015, typically 8–20 km2), reaching a peak of ~30 km2 during 2018–2019. Long-term retrieval of water quality parameters revealed that the decline in total suspended matter (from ~80 to 60 mg/L) and chlorophyll (from ~3 to 2 μg/L) within aquaculture zones was significantly greater than that in non-aquaculture areas, providing direct observational evidence for local water quality improvement by appropriately scaled aquaculture. Meanwhile, sea surface temperature showed a sustained increasing trend, with extremely high-temperature days (≥25 °C) exhibiting strong interannual variability, posing potential thermal stress risks to cold-preferring seaweed species. The NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and FAI (Floating Algae Index) indices effectively captured aquaculture phenology (seeding, growth, maturation, harvest), with their interannual peaks exhibiting an inverted U-shaped correlation with corresponding yields (R = 0.82 and 0.79, respectively, based on quadratic regression fitting), preliminarily demonstrating the potential of remote sensing in indicating density-dependent effects. This study systematically demonstrates the comprehensive capability of multi-source satellite remote sensing in long-term dynamic monitoring, environmental effect assessment, and yield relationship analysis of seaweed aquaculture, providing key technical support and scientific basis for aquaculture carrying capacity management and ecological risk prevention in island waters.