Prediction Model for Deformation of Concrete Dam Based on Interpretable Component Decomposition and Integration

A dam deformation prediction method based on interpretable component decomposition and integration is proposed to address the problems of weak interpretability, difficult identification of key factors, and insufficient accuracy in the prediction model of deformation monitoring values of concrete dams due to multiple factors such as environmental loads and time factors. This method first strips the temporal component from the original sequence to obtain the castration sequence. Furthermore, complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) is used to decompose and reconstruct it into environmental load components and residual terms. In the process of deformation prediction, based on the characteristics of each deformation component, logarithmic functions, bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) networks optimized by The Black-Winged Kite Algorithm (BKA), and cloud models are used to fit and predict the temporal components, environmental load components, and residual terms, and the final prediction results are obtained through integration. At the same time, the SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) method is introduced to quantify the contribution of input factors to enhance the interpretability of the model. Case study shows that the model outperforms the comparison model in both prediction accuracy and trend tracking ability, effectively improving the reliability of prediction results and significantly increasing the interpretability of deformation prediction, providing a more reliable analysis technique for dam deformation safety monitoring.