Scenario Planning for Competitive Tourism Villages Using a Cross-Impact Balance Approach for Local Economic Development: A Case Study of Rural Tourism in Indonesia

This study developed internally consistent scenarios for tourism village development to strengthen destination competitiveness and support the local economy. Using an exploratory–constructive design and the Cross-Impact Balance method, the study structured the relationships among development elements, competitiveness, and local economic development into 13 descriptors with 52 states. Expert judgment was used to construct a cross-impact matrix, and ScenarioWizard identified 18 consistent scenarios and their Total Impact Scores. Four scenarios showed positive consistency scores, with one high-road scenario emerging as the most consistent pathway toward very high competitiveness and a stronger role for tourism villages in the local economy. This scenario was characterized by a clear value proposition, full integration of local MSMEs and products, diversified revenue sources, equitable benefit distribution, strong managerial and digital capacity, transparent governance, multi-stakeholder partnerships, strategic use of public funds, and a structured digital marketing and booking system. These findings suggest that policy efforts should prioritize coordinated improvements in value proposition, MSME integration, revenue diversification, governance, partnerships, and digital management to move tourism villages toward the high-road scenario.