Tracking governance and SDG progress in Africa: falling behind or leading the way?

Purpose This study aims to examine whether Africa is falling behind or leading the way in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by analyzing how governance capacity is associated with SDG performance across African regions. Drawing on Governance Network Theory (GNT), the study moves beyond general claims that governance matters to examine how governance–SDG relationships vary across goals and territorial contexts. Design/methodology/approach The study uses a quantitative panel data design covering 46 African countries from 2015 to 2022. SDG performance is measured using the Sustainable Development Report index and SDG trend scores. Governance capacity is proxied by the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) and analyzed using pooled panel regressions and ordered probit models with regional interaction effects to capture heterogeneity across African subregions. Because cross-country data do not allow direct observation of governance networks, the WGI dimensions are interpreted as network-enabling governance capacities, and the results are interpreted through a GNT lens rather than as direct measures of network structure. Findings The results show that governance capacity is positively associated with overall SDG performance, but the strength of this association varies significantly across SDGs and regions. Governance effects are strongest for coordination-intensive goals, notably quality education (SDG 4), gender equality (SDG 5), climate action (SDG 13) and partnerships for the goals (SDG 17). Persistent underperformance is observed in poverty (SDG 1), health (SDG 3) and inequality (SDG 10)-related goals, highlighting governance–performance decoupling in some regions. Practical implications The findings suggest that SDG strategies in Africa should prioritize strengthening coordination capacity, multi-actor collaboration and regional governance networks, rather than relying on uniform governance reforms. Regionally tailored action maps can enhance SDG delivery effectiveness. Social implications By identifying where and why governance capacity translates unevenly into SDG outcomes, the study informs policymakers, development partners and civil society actors seeking inclusive and context-sensitive pathways to sustainable development in Africa. Originality/value The study advances SDG research by operationalizing GNT in a multi-regional African context by showing that governance–SDG relationships in Africa are conditional, regionally embedded and goal-specific, rather than uniformly positive.