When biomass demand exceeds supply: forward-looking spatial analysis of residential firewood use and policy implications in Hungary

Firewood remains a major heating source in Hungary, yet its sustainability is challenged by spatial imbalances between forest resources and household demand, as well as competition from industrial users. This study assesses the balance between projected final-felling-based fuelwood supply and residential heating demand at the municipal level for 2026–2050. Supply was derived from the National Forestry Database, demand from census and building energy data, and allocation was modelled with a custom Python location–allocation algorithm linked to a GIS-based road network. Two scenarios were examined: business as usual (BAU) and improved energy efficiency (EE). Under the BAU scenario, annual total demand of 9.3 million m 3 nearly doubles the projected final-felling-based fuelwood supply of 4.7 million m 3 , creating widespread deficit zones. By contrast, the EE scenario reduces residential demand by 74%, closing the supply–demand gap and easing competition. The results highlight the need for spatially targeted biomass policies and renovation programmes, while the methodology offers a transferable framework for other national contexts. • Municipal-scale firewood demand nearly doubles projected supply under BAU. • Deep energy efficiency can cut demand by ∼74%, easing deficits and sectoral competition. • Industrial demand hotspots constrain residential allocations in 22 municipalities. • Uniform biomass subsidies risk lock-in; coverage-map targeting supports NECP design. • Framework is transferable across CEE/EU contexts for resource-sensitive biomass policy.