Black and green: How electoral outcomes influence provincial circular economy performance in Italy

Abstract Italy’s territorial disparities—most prominently the north–south divide—reflect broader European challenges, highlighting the difficulty of reconciling environmental sustainability with economic cohesion in an era of increasing political volatility. While northern provinces leverage robust infrastructure and global value chain integration to drive industrial innovation, southern provinces face persistent unemployment, skilled worker outmigration, and deindustrialization, fostering socio-economic marginalization and populist sentiments. Parties like Lega in the north and Movimento Cinque Stelle in the south capitalize on local discontent, often critiquing EU policies, including the circular economy (CE) agenda, which is perceived as disconnected from peripheral areas’ immediate needs. Using NUTS-3 level data, this study investigates how electoral preferences in Italian provinces shape CE implementation. By analysing ecological transition indicators, economic performance, and electoral dynamics, the present work reveals how political orientations shape CE adoption. While Northern provinces appear ready to embrace the transition, Southern provinces face significant obstacles, stemming from infrastructural deficits and populist resistance. These insights may inform policymakers on fostering inclusive, territorially balanced ecological transitions across the different socio-political landscapes of the country.