Land Market Adjustment Under Geopolitical Uncertainty and External Economic Pressure: Evidence From the <scp>US</scp> –China Trade Conflict

ABSTRACT This paper examines the impact of the 2018 US–China trade war on China's industrial land supply using a novel dataset of 2.5 million land transactions from 2010 to 2023. We find that despite the trade war's adverse demand shock on exports, industrial land supply experienced a significant expansion. This increase was particularly pronounced in peripheral cities where land availability is abundant, rather than in core cities where industrial land utilization is more efficient. We interpret this phenomenon as a strategic response to heightened geopolitical uncertainty, characterized by defensive industrial expansion through hinterland development and the establishment of industrial backup capacities.