Participatory fuzzy cognitive modelling reveals leverage points for agroecological adoption in the Central Valleys of Oaxaca

Abstract Global institutions are increasingly calling for an agroecological transition of our food systems to promote sustainable farmer livelihoods, safeguard agrobiodiversity and foster socio‐ecological resilience to a changing climate. Yet adoption remains limited, and there is a paucity of research examining how local conditions enable and constrain agroecological adoption. This study couples participatory fuzzy cognitive mapping with a leverage points perspective to examine place‐based leverage points for agroecological horticulture in the Central Valleys of Oaxaca, Mexico, where monoculture production, resource degradation and farm abandonment threaten farming livelihoods and biocultural heritage. Local agroecological facilitators co‐developed a fuzzy cognitive map to model the components and relationships influencing agroecological adoption. We harnessed a leverage points perspective to analyse the distribution of model components across theorized realms of leverage and identify place‐based leverage points. Scenario analyses modelled the projected impacts of targeted interventions. We found that the consensus model incorporated diverse socio‐ecological elements across all four levels of leverage. Scenario analyses revealed that strategies to facilitate agroecological adoption in the Central Valleys should address immediate constraints in shallower realms of leverage, such as costs and risks, while fostering long‐term enabling conditions, such as women and youth engagement and market access. We highlight several promising pathways for activating leverage points. We recommend that decision‐makers mitigate potential threats to the economic viability of agroecological horticulture or to an agroecologically aligned intent of the system, as these are projected to have severe, negative impacts on agroecological adoption. Our findings offer place‐based insights to inform policy and targeted efforts to support agroecological horticulture in the Central Valleys. We highlight the value and broad applicability of fuzzy cognitive mapping as a tool to better connect theory and practice by identifying place‐based leverage for sustainability. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.