Life-Cycle Greenhouse Gas Thresholds for Electric and Conventional Passenger Vehicles Under European Electricity Scenarios

This study aims to show a detailed life cycle assessment (LCA) approach of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), with an emphasis on determining the electrical carbon intensity at which these vehicles reach life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) parity. The analysis was conducted in openLCA v2.0.3 using the Ecoinvent v3.9.1 database under a European use-phase context, with a functional unit of 150,000 km. BEVs were evaluated for two representative lithium-ion battery chemistries (NMC622 and LFP) under three electricity carbon intensity scenarios (50, 400, and 850 g CO2/kWh), while ICEVs were modeled for both gasoline and diesel pathways. Results show that BEV life-cycle GHG emissions vary between 91 and 221 g CO2-eq/km across different combinations of electricity mix, battery chemistry, and end-of-life conditions. When isolating electricity carbon intensity as the primary variable under a fixed BEV configuration, emissions increase approximately linearly with grid emission factor. Under average European electricity conditions (400 g CO2/kWh), BEVs exhibit lower life-cycle GHG emissions than gasoline ICEVs, whereas under coal-intensive electricity conditions (850 g CO2/kWh) this advantage may be reduced or reversed. The break-even electricity carbon intensity is derived by linear interpolation under a fixed BEV configuration (NMC622, 60 kWh, constant lifetime and EoL conditions), yielding a threshold of approximately 600 g CO2/kWh. The results further indicate that this threshold is influenced by battery chemistry, production-related emissions, recycling efficiency, and assumed vehicle lifetime. These findings highlight the importance of simultaneous progress in electricity decarbonization and end-of-life recycling to secure the environmental benefits of vehicle electrification, and they provide a threshold-oriented framework for policy-relevant interpretation of comparative vehicle LCA results.