ASSESSING TRENDS IN AGRICULTURAL EXPANSION, VEGETATION RECOVERY, AND LANDSCAPE STABILISATION IN SOKOTO STATE, NIGERIA (1984 -2024)

This study assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics of Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) in Sokoto State, Nigeria, over 40 years (1984–2024), with focus on agricultural expansion and vegetation dynamics. It utilized multi-temporal Landsat satellite imagery and Google Earth Engine for image differencing and trend index analysis. The study revealed four distinct phases of landscape transformation: an initial period (1984–1994) of widespread agricultural expansion, a two-decade phase (1994–2014) of relative landscape stabilization and vegetation recovery, and a recent phase (2014–2024) marked by simultaneous vegetation regeneration and moderate cropland resurgence. According to the LULC categorization indices, farmland was responsible for more than 86% of land transformation in the first ten years, but during the stabilization phase, it decreased to less than 1%, and then increased further to 11.45% in the last ten years. Between 2014 and 2024, the vegetation recovery index reached a peak at 78%, indicating a rise in environmental consciousness and land restoration initiatives. The significance of sustainable land management, ongoing geospatial monitoring, and policy changes to strike a balance between ecological restoration and agricultural development, is highlighted by these patterns, which are consistent with larger regional and global land change trends. The findings provide information for directing land use planning in the study area. It also highlighted the necessity of continuous geospatial monitoring, sustainable land management practices, and more investigation into the socio-ecological causes and effects of LULCC in dry and semi-arid areas such as Sokoto.