CEEMDAN–SST-GraphPINN-TimesFM Model Integrating Operating-State Segmentation and Feature Selection for Interpretable Prediction of Gas Concentration in Coal Mines

Gas concentration series in coal mining faces are jointly affected by multiple coupled factors, including geological conditions, mining disturbances, ventilation organization, and gas drainage intensity, and therefore exhibit pronounced nonstationarity, strong fluctuations, spatiotemporal correlations across multiple monitoring points, and occasional abrupt spikes. To address these challenges, this study proposes a gas concentration prediction and early-warning method that integrates CEEMDAN-SST with GraphPINN-TimesFM (Graph Physics-Informed Neural Network-Time Series Foundation Model). First, based on multi-source monitoring data such as wind speed, gas concentrations at multiple monitoring points, and equipment operating status, anomaly removal, operating-condition segmentation, and change-point detection are performed to construct stable operating-state labels. Feature selection is then conducted by combining optimal time-lag correlation, Shapley value contribution, and dynamic time warping. Second, WGAN-GP is employed to augment samples from minority operating conditions, while CEEMDAN-SST is used to decompose and reconstruct the target series so as to reduce the interference of nonstationary noise and enhance sequence predictability. On this basis, TimesFM is adopted as the backbone for long-sequence forecasting to capture long-term dependency features in gas concentration evolution. Furthermore, GraphPINN is introduced to embed the topological associations among monitoring points, airflow transmission delays, and convection-diffusion mechanisms into the training process, thereby enabling collaborative modeling that integrates data-driven learning with physical constraints. Finally, the predictive performance, early-warning capability, and interpretability of the proposed model are systematically evaluated through regression forecasting, warning discrimination, and Shapley-based interpretability analysis. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively improve the accuracy, robustness, and physical consistency of gas concentration prediction under complex operating conditions, thereby providing a new technical pathway for gas over-limit early warning and safety regulation in coal mining faces.