Decoding the Energy-Economy-Carbon Nexus: A TFT-ASTGCN Deep Learning Approach for Spatiotemporal Carbon Forecasting in the Yellow River Basin, China

This study systematically examines the low-carbon transition challenges faced by the Yellow River Basin, a core strategic energy base in China with a coal-dominated energy system, under the dual carbon goals. Existing studies based on traditional econometric models or single-province analyses are mostly limited to static analysis, failing to simultaneously capture the nonlinear spatiotemporal evolution, cross-regional spillover effects, and long-term changing trends of carbon emissions in the basin. To fill this gap, this study builds an Energy–Economy–Carbon (EEC) analytical framework, and develops an integrated TFT-ASTGCN deep learning framework. Specifically, we employ the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) for high-precision multivariate time-series simulation and peak forecasting, while the Attention-based Spatial–Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (ASTGCN) is used to identify complex spatial dependencies of inter-provincial emissions. The empirical results confirm that: (1) Basin carbon emissions show significant coal-driven carbon lock-in, with initial decoupling between economic growth and emissions. (2) Most provinces will maintain rising emissions under the current development mode, posing severe challenges to carbon peaking. (3) Asymmetric spatial spillover effects are prominent, underscoring cross-regional collaborative governance as a critical pathway for achieving an early and stable carbon peak in the basin.