Dynamics and ecology of a multistage expansion of Oropouche virus in Brazil

In March 2024, Brazil reported an unprecedented Oropouche fever outbreak, driven by the emergence of a reassortant lineage of the Oropouche virus (OROV) expanding beyond the Amazon Basin. To investigate the expansion dynamics of OROV, we implemented complementary phylogeographic and ecological niche modelling approaches that aimed to characterize the environmental factors associated with the range expansion and the risk of local circulation, respectively. Our analyses reveal a multiscale expansion process with both short- and long-distance dispersal events and diffusion velocities in line with air traffic-mediated jumps. We identify banana and cocoa cultivation, temperature, the predicted suitability of the primary vector Culicoides paraensis and human population density as key environmental factors associated with OROV range expansion in new areas. We further show that OROV circulated in areas of enhanced ecological suitability immediately preceding its explosive epidemic expansion in the Amazon. Our study provides valuable insights into the dispersal and ecological dynamics of OROV, highlighting the probable role of human mobility in the long-distance colonization of new areas and raising concern over high viral suitability along the Brazilian coast.

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Journal
Nature Ecology & Evolution
Published
2026-04-17
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-026-03042-0
Primary Topic
Mosquito-borne diseases and control
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article
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0.00

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article

Dynamics and ecology of a multistage expansion of Oropouche virus in Brazil

James Ayei Maror, Michael Owusu, Carla Mavian, John Juma et al.
Nature Ecology & Evolution
Mosquito-borne diseases and control
article

Dynamics and ecology of a multistage expansion of Oropouche virus in Brazil

James Ayei Maror, Michael Owusu, Carla Mavian, John Juma, Abdou Padane, Monika Moir, Nokuzola Mbhele, Kenneth K. Maeka, Marcel Dunaiski, Oyewale Tomori, John Oludele, Martin Faye, Molalegne Bitew, Eninam Kouma, Yajna Ramphal, Girma Godebo, Houriiyah Tegally, Graeme Dor, Jenicca Poongavanan, Gaspary Mwanyika, Massimiliano S. Tagliamonte, Aloysious Ssemaganda, Túlio de Oliveira, Lavanya Singh, Tanya Golubchik, Richard Lessells, D. J. VAN ZYL, Isaac Emmanuel Omara, Simon Dellicour, Marije Hofstra, Marta Giovanetti, Vagner Fonseca, Lucious Chabuka, Cheryl Baxter, Samuel O. Oyola, Nikita Sitharam, Danilo de Castro Silva, Badara Cissé, Carlos F. Campelo de Albuquerque, Anyebe Bernard Onoja, Ronison Alves Guimarães, Ambroise Ahouidi, Birhanu D. Alemu, Luiz Carlos Junior Alcantara, Souleymane Mboup, Edward C. Holmes, Joseph Fokam, Wolfgang Preiser, Abdualmoniem O. A. Musa, Desalew M. Moges, Eduan Wilkinson, Carlin Foka, Jennica Poonagavan, Joicymara S. Xavier, Adugna Abera, José Lourenço, Fredy B. N. Simo, Argentina F. Muianga, Livia C. V. Frutuoso, Aziza John Samson, Michel N. Dikongo, Melissa Ahou Koffi, Mohamed Z. Alimohamed, Ramuth Magalutcheemee, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Ny Haingo Miantsatian Andry, Nkurunziza Jerome, Allan Campbell, Darren Martin, Graeme D’or, Sara A. Abuelmaali, Maman Issaka
article en

Abstract

In March 2024, Brazil reported an unprecedented Oropouche fever outbreak, driven by the emergence of a reassortant lineage of the Oropouche virus (OROV) expanding beyond the Amazon Basin. To investigate the expansion dynamics of OROV, we implemented complementary phylogeographic and ecological niche modelling approaches that aimed to characterize the environmental factors associated with the range expansion and the risk of local circulation, respectively. Our analyses reveal a multiscale expansion process with both short- and long-distance dispersal events and diffusion velocities in line with air traffic-mediated jumps. We identify banana and cocoa cultivation, temperature, the predicted suitability of the primary vector Culicoides paraensis and human population density as key environmental factors associated with OROV range expansion in new areas. We further show that OROV circulated in areas of enhanced ecological suitability immediately preceding its explosive epidemic expansion in the Amazon. Our study provides valuable insights into the dispersal and ecological dynamics of OROV, highlighting the probable role of human mobility in the long-distance colonization of new areas and raising concern over high viral suitability along the Brazilian coast.

Nature Ecology & Evolution
Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica (BR), National Health Laboratory Service (ZA), Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (BR), The University of Sydney (AU), Universidade do Estado da Bahia (BR), Université Libre de Bruxelles (BE), Vrije Universiteit Brussel (BE), University of Wisconsin–Madison (US), Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences (TZ), Università Campus Bio-Medico (IT), University of Cape Town (ZA), University of Ibadan (NG), University of Juba (SS), Kassala University (SD), Ministry of Health and Child Welfare (ZW), Rega Institute for Medical Research (BE), Universidade Católica Portuguesa (PT), Stellenbosch University (ZA), Redeemer's University (NG), Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute (US), Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (GH), University of Florida (US), University of Oxford (GB), Centre International De Reference Chantal Biya (CM), Ethiopian Public Health Institute (ET), Federal Ministry of Health (SD), Centre International de Recherches Médicales de Franceville (GA), Institute of Health Research, Epidemiological Surveillance and Training (SN), Pan American Health Organization (Brasil) (BR), Ministério da Saúde (BR), National Public Health Laboratory (NP), Pan African Institute for Development (CM), Société de Développement des Forêts (CI), Ministry of Scientific Research and Innovation (CM), University of Wisconsin Health (US), Instituto Nacional de Saúde (MZ), Institut Pasteur de Dakar (SN), Ministry of Health and Quality of Life (MU), Sierra Leone Urban Research Centre (SL), Hope Africa University (BI), National Institute for Medical Research (TZ), Wachemo University, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (BR), International Livestock Research Institute (KE), Florida College (US), University of KwaZulu-Natal (ZA), KU Leuven (BE)
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Rockefeller Foundation, World Bank Group, Wellcome, Wellcome Trust, European Commission, South African Medical Research Council, Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique - FNRS, Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek, Innovation and Technology Commission, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, Novo Nordisk, Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais, Vlaamse regering, National Institutes of Health, Horizon 2020 Framework Programme, HORIZON EUROPE Framework Programme, Medical Research Council, National Health and Medical Research Council, Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
Openalex Percentile: Top 17%
Mosquito-borne diseases and control
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