Urban Transformation of the Belgrade Riverfront: Land Use and Vegetation Change from 1990 to 2024

Urban districts along major rivers are undergoing rapid transformation, yet long-term evidence on how redevelopment reshapes land cover and vegetation structure remains limited in post-socialist cities. This study examines the spatio-temporal evolution of land use and land cover (LULC) and vegetation dynamics along the Sava River corridor in Belgrade from 1990 to 2024. CORINE Land Cover (CLC) datasets were combined with Landsat-derived NDVI and MSAVI time series, while high-resolution Esri Wayback imagery was used for visual interpretation and qualitative corroboration of the detected land-cover and vegetation patterns. Beyond conventional NDVI/LULC assessments, the study integrates multi-decadal spectral trends with functional vegetation structure classification to evaluate canopy continuity and ecological configuration under contrasting redevelopment models. Results reveal a pronounced divergence between the two riverbanks. The left bank (New Belgrade) maintains stable land-cover composition and consistently higher NDVI and MSAVI values, indicating preserved green infrastructure and sustained canopy continuity. In contrast, the right bank (Belgrade Waterfront) experienced substantial land-cover conversion after 2006, with a statistically significant decline in vegetation greenness (NDVI −0.020 dec−1, p < 0.001) and a marked increase in impervious surfaces. MSAVI-based functional classes indicate a shift from mixed low vegetation to predominantly sealed land, while tree canopy remained persistently low throughout redevelopment. The findings demonstrate measurable ecological simplification and canopy loss, even where nominal green areas remain present. By providing a rare multi-decadal, spatially explicit comparison of two contrasting planning paradigms within the same river corridor, the study contributes new empirical evidence on how governance and redevelopment models shape riparian ecological trajectories and sustainable urbanism in post-socialist cities. Strengthening blue-green infrastructure and restoring native riparian vegetation are essential for enhancing climate resilience and ensuring long-term riverfront sustainability.