The devil's in the details when using correlative and mechanistic species distribution models to inform multispecies and ecosystem models
The ability to predict spatial distributions of marine species has advanced rapidly in recent years. Benefits include extrapolating habitat maps when data are sparse, thus improving our ability to quantify shifts in species ranges seasonally and over past decades, understanding the ocean conditions that drive these shifts, and projecting spatial redistribution due to climate change. Efforts have begun to couple these spatial distributions to complex multispecies and end-to-end-ecosystem models. The resulting integration of distributions, stock size, trophic interactions, and fishing effects allows for more realistic dynamics than what either model type is likely to attain alone. Coupling species distribution models to multispecies and ecosystem models is intuitively attractive, yet presents us with multiple decisions and approximations. Here we identify best practices for the detailed decisions (“the devil’s in the details”) required for such coupling. We summarize lessons learned from five case studies in the California Current and Peru Current ecosystems, the Celtic Sea, and the Gulf of Alaska, with a focus on examples regarding small pelagic fish.
Authors
- M. R. Baker (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2501-181X)
- Stefan Koenigstein (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3684-8690)
- Elliott L. Hazen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0412-7178)
- Pierre‐Yves Hernvann (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0369-7857)
- Alberto Rovellini (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1064-4737)
- Owen R. Liu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9735-3384)
- Dylan Gomes (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2642-3728)
- Isaac C. Kaplan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8748-329X)
- Rebecca Asch
- M. C. Hill
- Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos
- Stephanie Green
- Nerea Lezama- Ochoa
- Sebastián I. Vásquez
- Criscely Luján
- Barbara Muhling
Institutions
- NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service (US)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (US)
- Ifremer (FR)
- University of Alberta (CA)
- University of Concepción (CL)
- University of California, Santa Cruz (US)
- East Carolina University (US)
- Université de Montpellier (FR)
- University of Washington (US)
- Leibniz Centre for Tropical Marine Research (DE)
- Institut Agro Rennes-Angers (FR)
- GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (DE)
- Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement (FR)
- Instituto del Mar del Peru (PE)
- NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Southwest Fisheries Science Center (US)
- North Pacific Research Board (US)
- Marine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (FR)
- Instituto de Fomento Pesquero (CL)
- Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR)
- NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Northwest Fisheries Science Center (US)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
- Published
- 2026-04-16
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2025-0419
- Primary Topic
- Marine and fisheries research
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00