Ecological Risk and Urban Resilience in the Chengdu–Chongqing Urban Agglomeration: Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Structural Mechanisms

Urban resilience plays a critical role in sustainable regional development. This is particularly so for ecologically vulnerable urban agglomerations undergoing rapid urbanization. This study examines the spatiotemporal development and driving mechanisms of urban resilience in the Chengdu–Chongqing Urban Agglomeration (CCUA) via the perspective of ecological risk. Using panel data from 16 prefecture-level cities during 2010–2023, this study constructs ecological risk and urban resilience indices were constructed based on the entropy weight–TOPSIS method. The coupling coordination degree model was applied to analyze the interactive dynamics between the two subsystems, and a two-way fixed effects panel model was employed to identify the impact of ecological risk on urban resilience and its moderating mechanisms. The results show that urban resilience experienced a foundational stabilization phase followed by gradual improvement, while ecological risk underwent a three-stage transformation characterized by accumulation, stabilization, and decline. The coupling degree between ecological risk and urban resilience remained moderately high, indicating structural tension within the regional system. Econometric analysis indicates that ecological risk significantly suppresses urban resilience. Infrastructure development has a positive direct effect on resilience. However, it negatively moderates the marginal impact of ecological risk, indicating a nonlinear and conditional risk–resilience relationship.