The Interannual Variability in Madden–Julian Oscillation Intensity: Insights from Changes in Background Mean States

The significant interannual variability in Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) intensity remains incompletely understood. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals that the first three leading EOF modes of the annual mean MJO intensity are significantly correlated with the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), Eastern Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and Central Pacific ENSO. Focusing on the distinct EOFs related to three key tropical interannual variabilities, we conduct an investigation into the potential governing processes through which the changes in background mean states impact MJO intensity based on the MJO moisture mode theory. Observations suggest that the accumulation of moist static energy (MSE) during MJO moistening phases and its dissipation during drying phases play a crucial role in regulating MJO amplitude. At the interannual timescale, regions characterized by positive EOF values display positive (negative) MSE tendency anomalies during MJO moistening (drying) phases, leading to amplified MSE accumulation (dissipation) throughout the MJO lifecycle and subsequently facilitating an increase in MJO amplitude. Conversely, regions with negative EOF values exhibit opposing trends. Further analysis reveals that these MSE tendency anomalies are mainly associated with the zonal advection term, which is influenced by interannual changes in the background mean MSE and low-level winds. The spatial pattern of the background mean MSE is strongly linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, with low-level background winds aligning well with the horizontal gradients of SST anomalies.