Econometric assessment of seasonal volatility and predictive uncertainty in Albania’s hydropower-dependent electricity market

), using the SARIMA baseline as the reference path. The sensitivity results quantify sizable, seasonally concentrated supply gaps under proportional production shocks (- 10% and - 25%), reinforcing the structural nature of the recurring third-quarter (Q3) deficit and its implications for adequacy and import coverage. The findings inform resilience planning by quantifying the scale and timing of seasonal shortfalls and by motivating diversification and flexibility options that are seasonally complementary to hydropower. In particular, solar PV is discussed as a potential counter-cyclical contributor conditional on scale-up, grid hosting capacity, and balancing resources. The paper concludes that hydropower-centric strategies alone are insufficient for medium-term stability and highlights the role of diversified non-hydro resources, grid-efficiency improvements, and storage in hedging forecasted production troughs and reducing exposure to external balancing needs.