Tourism Structure, Rural Accommodation and External Balance: A Time-Varying Analysis for Türkiye

This study examines the current account implications of sustainable rural tourism in Türkiye by measuring rural tourism intensity through tourist arrivals in locally embedded and small-scale accommodation structures—including mountain lodges, camping sites, hostels, pensions, motels, village houses, and boutique hotels—collectively referred to as the LESS variable. Using monthly time series data over the period 2000–2025, the trade deficit is modeled as a function of rural accommodation intensity and the real effective exchange rate. The empirical framework employs Johansen cointegration analysis evaluated through the Pantula principle, Vector Error Correction Model-based Granger causality tests, full-sample bootstrap causality tests, and rolling window bootstrap causality analysis to capture time-varying causal dynamics. The findings confirm a long-run cointegration relationship among the variables and reveal that rural tourism intensity exerts a statistically significant causal effect on the trade deficit, with the relationship intensifying during crisis periods such as the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 shock. Specifically, increases in rural accommodation intensity are found to exert a negative and significant effect on the trade deficit, indicating that locally embedded tourism structures enhance net foreign exchange retention through lower import leakage. These results suggest that tourism structures characterized by stronger local embeddedness and lower import intensity enhance net foreign exchange retention and contribute to external balance stability.