EXTERNAL DEBT BURDEN IN NIGERIA: IMPLICATIONS FOR ACHIEVING ZERO HUNGER

On the 31st December 2025 the percentage ratio of Nigeria’s external debt servicing to export attained 157% exceeding by large magnitude the World Bank specified critical value of 25%, signaling debt crisis and heavy burden. Hence, this study examined the effects of excessively large external debt servicing and interest payments on government annual budgetary allocation to agriculture in Nigeria as insight into the feasibility of Nigeria meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of zero hunger in 2030. In this study, external debt service and interest payments on debt served as proxies for burden; while government annual budgetary allocation to agriculture as proxy for meeting zero in 2030. The data were extracted from annual external debt stock, external debt service payments, interest payments on external debt and government expenditures on agriculture from 1970 to 2025. These data were collected from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), World Bank data and various sources. To estimate the model, the study employed Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) bound test. The results of the analysis indicated that in the short run, which external debt stock and external service had significant negative effect on agriculture; while over the long run external debt stock, external debt servicing and interest payments on external debt had significant negative effect on agriculture. Implications of the findings: 1. Nigeria’s external burden from 1970 to 2025 has a depressive effect on agriculture; 2. such adverse effect of external debt on agriculture implied less agricultural infrastructure, technology, fertilizers etc.; 3. less productivity in agriculture and increased food scarcity; 4. Increased hunger and Nigeria’s inability to accomplish Sustainable Development Goal of zero hunger in 2030. Hence, the author recommended that government should ensure that all kinds of public borrowing should be project tied, giving more priority to agriculture. Investment in agriculture in Nigeria should be more of transfer of real resources rather than monetary income to avoid inflation among other recommendations.