The determinants of school participation among children aged 6–18 years in Somalia: Empirical evidence from linear probability and Logit models

Education plays a pivotal role in shaping national progress and is enshrined in global commitments such as the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and Sustainable Development Goal4 (SDG 4), which seeks to ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all. This study examines the determinants of school participation among children aged 6-18 years in Somalia, a fragile and conflict-affected setting with persistently low educational access. Using nationally representative data from the 2022 Somalia Integrated Household Budget Survey (SIHBS), the analysis employs both Linear Probability and Logit models, with Logit results reported as average marginal effects. The findings indicate substantial inequalities in school participation. Girls, children with disabilities, and children from nomadic households are significantly less likely to attend school. In contrast, children living in households headed by individuals with middle or high levels of education and those with a regular source of income exhibit markedly higher participation rates. Notably, rural residence is associated with higher school participation among girls relative to urban areas, suggesting potential benefits of subsidized, community-supported, or publicly provided schooling. In addition, children with only their mother alive, as well as orphaned children, display higher participation rates than those with both parents alive, highlighting the important role of extended family and kinship support structures in the Somali context.Overall, the results underscore the need for targeted, and context-specific education policies in Somalia. Interventions should prioritize equity by focusing on girls, nomadic populations, and children with disabilities while strengthening community-based education and household economic resilience. By providing recent, nationally representative, and disaggregated evidence This study contributes to policy-relevant knowledge for inclusive education planning in fragile and low-income settings.