An integration of dynamic Input–Output analysis and power expansion and operation planning model for the evaluation of the effects of new technologies

Abstract Comprehensive assessments of emerging technologies are increasingly vital for understanding their impacts on industry and society. Various electric vehicles (xEVs) reduce fuel consumption but alter cost and supply structures due to changes in components and materials. Hydrogen technologies, including Hydrogen Direct Reduction Method of Iron Ore (HDRI), may significantly shift material flows and production costs. The spread of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) is expected to transform business processes, boosting productivity and electricity demand. This study uses Input–Output analysis to model future scenarios incorporating xEVs, HDRI, and various ICT-based services. A complementary power expansion and operation planning model forecasts long-term electricity generation investments to meet rising demand. These models are integrated to simulate Japan’s industrial transformation from 2015 to 2050 in five-year intervals. Simulation results show average annual GDP growth between 0.19% and 1.10% under accelerated decarbonization with ICT penetration. CO 2 emissions in 2050 range from 1236.3 Mt-CO 2 (BAU) to 339.4 Mt-CO 2 , while electricity demand rises from 1098 TWh to 1983.4 TWh. Hydrogen demand reaches 2168 PJ. Direct Air Capture and Storage (DACS) is not yet included but will be addressed in future research.