Review of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty: A Practitioner’s Perspective

The 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has proven remarkably resilient across its long history, reflecting broad agreement among states that the further spread of nuclear weapons will increase the risks of nuclear war and global instability. Today, pressures on the treaty are rising due to rapid changes in the global security environment, reversals on nuclear arms control, ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, and successive failures of the two prior review conferences to reach consensus on a final document. Adding to these pressures, the NPT’s indefinite extension in 1995 created unrealistic expectations for progress towards disarmament and a Middle East zone free of weapons of mass destruction, issues that roil the treaty’s internal political process. Given the circumstances, prospects for a consensus outcome at the 2026 review conference are poor. As in prior reviews, it can be expected that the parties will make best efforts to consolidate areas of agreement and manage substantive differences across a range of disarmament, nonproliferation, and peace uses issues. Poor prospects notwithstanding, with the intervention of treaty leaders, the parties may yet find it possible to ensure the 2026 conference at a minimum serves to stabilize the treaty and reaffirm international norms of nuclear restraint amidst today’s global turbulence.