A Diagnostics-First Composite Index for Macro-Financial Resilience to Socioeconomic Challenges: The Gondauri Index with Benchmarking and Scenario Evidence

In the face of socioeconomic challenges, this paper develops and empirically demonstrates the Gondauri Index (GI) as a reproducible, diagnostics-first composite framework for benchmarking macro-financial resilience across heterogeneous economies on a unified 0–100 scale. The GI is designed to address a central limitation of conventional surveillance dashboards: resilience is multi-dimensional and only partially substitutable, meaning that strength in one area cannot sustainably offset structural fragility in another. To operationalize this principle, GI integrates three interpretable pillars: Inequality Resilience Score (IRS) capturing the stability and macro-consistency of distributional dynamics; Liquidity & Systemic Resilience (LNSR) capturing the robustness of liquidity transmission and residual stress under rolling conditions; and Inflation Forecast Coherence (IFC) measuring whether inflation forecasting performance improves consistently when moving from benchmark specifications to a hybrid model with an FPAS + ζ augmentation. Cross-economy comparability is ensured through robust percentile normalization (p5–p95), a consistent annual country-year evaluation design, and explicit missing-data handling via component-level weight re-normalization. Empirically, the results provide a 2024 benchmark snapshot and dynamic evidence over 2005–2024 using 5-year rolling diagnostics and Δlog(GI) contribution decomposition, enabling transparent attribution of resilience changes to pillar-level drivers. A forward-looking extension constructs 2026–2030 scenario pathways (baseline/adverse/optimistic) and introduces a binding-pillar diagnostic that identifies the dominant constraint on resilience across horizons. Overall, the GI framework offers a scalable measurement tool for comparative resilience assessment, early-warning diagnostics, and evidence-based policy sequencing in both advanced and emerging economies facing socioeconomic challenges.