Long-term adaptation pathways for Venice and its lagoon under sea-level rise

The substantial risks posed to Venice and its lagoon by ongoing and projected sea-level rise (SLR) require unprecedented long-term adaptation strategies. We map the evolution of development pathways and the progressive shrinking of the solution space as SLR advances, identifying adaptation tipping points and analysing the relative pros and cons of alternative measures. The analysis highlights trade-offs among environmental quality, heritage preservation, social well-being and relevant Sustainable Development Goals, and costs increasing with SLR. With present insufficient greenhouse gas mitigation policies, the current open lagoon strategy, with mobile barriers and multiple accommodation measures, is likely to encounter hard limits within the current century. Follow-up strategies include ring-dikes isolating the city from the rest of the lagoon, or a closed lagoon with permanent coastal dams, each preserving different combinations of values while entailing major ecological and socio-cultural transitions. Under extreme SLR, relocation of monuments to suitable inland areas and abandonment would be the only remaining strategy, which might become unavoidable in the 22nd century under current climate policies and an Antarctic ice-sheet collapse. Rapid mitigation could still avoid the most disruptive long-term outcomes.

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Publication Details

Journal
Scientific Reports
Published
2026-04-16
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-39108-z
Primary Topic
Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Long-term adaptation pathways for Venice and its lagoon under sea-level rise

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Scientific Reports
Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
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Long-term adaptation pathways for Venice and its lagoon under sea-level rise

Carlo Giupponi, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Pietro Teatini, Piero Lionello, Ulysse Pasquier, Georg Umgiesser, Roger Cremades, Luigi Tosi, MedECC, Jochen Hinkel, Adriano Sfriso, Athanasios T. Vafeidis, Valeria Di Fant, Gonéri Le Cozannet, Robert J. Nicholls
article en

Abstract

The substantial risks posed to Venice and its lagoon by ongoing and projected sea-level rise (SLR) require unprecedented long-term adaptation strategies. We map the evolution of development pathways and the progressive shrinking of the solution space as SLR advances, identifying adaptation tipping points and analysing the relative pros and cons of alternative measures. The analysis highlights trade-offs among environmental quality, heritage preservation, social well-being and relevant Sustainable Development Goals, and costs increasing with SLR. With present insufficient greenhouse gas mitigation policies, the current open lagoon strategy, with mobile barriers and multiple accommodation measures, is likely to encounter hard limits within the current century. Follow-up strategies include ring-dikes isolating the city from the rest of the lagoon, or a closed lagoon with permanent coastal dams, each preserving different combinations of values while entailing major ecological and socio-cultural transitions. Under extreme SLR, relocation of monuments to suitable inland areas and abandonment would be the only remaining strategy, which might become unavoidable in the 22nd century under current climate policies and an Antarctic ice-sheet collapse. Rapid mitigation could still avoid the most disruptive long-term outcomes.

Scientific ReportsVol. 16(1)
United States Geological Survey (US), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), University of Leeds (GB), University of Padua (IT), University of Salento (IT), Ca' Foscari University of Venice (IT), Utrecht University (NL), Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel (DE), Klaipėda University (LT), Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources (IT), Deltares (NL), Istituto di Scienze Marine del Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (IT), Global Climate Forum (DE), Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (IT), Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Ecologie Marine et Continentale (FR), Tyndall Centre (GB), National Research Council (IT), Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (FR), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR), University of Southampton (GB)
Openalex Percentile: Top 15%
Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
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