From Smoke to Stakes: Parental Smoking During Childhood as a Predictor of Adult Gambling Behaviour

ABSTRACT Background Australia has one of the highest rates of gambling among developed countries, with important consequences for public health and well‐being. Identifying the underlying drivers of gambling behaviour is therefore a key public policy issue, particularly in understanding how early‐life experiences shape later‐life risk‐taking behaviours. Methods This study investigates the long‐term impact of childhood exposure to parental smoking on adult gambling behaviour using longitudinal data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey and explores underlying mechanisms. To address endogeneity concerns, it employs a heteroskedasticity‐based instrumental variable approach alongside the Oster (2019) bounding approach. Results Individuals exposed to parental smoking in childhood are significantly more likely to engage in gambling as adults. The relationship is mediated through several key mechanisms, including locus of control, educational attainment and labour market outcomes, indicating that early‐life environments shape both preferences and constraints influencing later behaviour. Policy Implications The findings provide evidence of intergenerational transmission of risky behaviours and suggest that early‐life interventions, particularly those targeting family environments and child development, may reduce harmful gambling behaviours in adulthood. The findings also highlight the importance of preventive public health strategies to mitigate long‐term behavioural risks.