Affinity voting in Europe: the impact of religion, migration background and gender on preferences for in-group politicians

Abstract To what extent does sharing the same religion, migration background and gender versus policy positions impact voting? Most evidence comes from the US and majority populations, but European minorities may respond differently. In this study, respondents from France, Germany and the Netherlands choose between profiles of hypothetical politicians with randomised politician religion, migration background, gender and policy positions. Oversampling voters with a migration background ( N = 1,889/3,058), among which a portion identifies as Muslim ( N = 649/3,058), reveals that instead of minorities, majorities are just as, if not more, likely to engage in affinity voting. Shared religion is the most influential affinity impacting Muslim and non-religious voters. Sharing the same migration background or gender has no positive impact on voting likelihood; on the contrary, the findings suggest that voters with a migration background tend to prefer politicians without a migration background. Non-religious voters exhibit an in-group preference both when the voter and politician agree but especially when the voter and politician disagree about policy. These findings reveal the electoral challenges to achieving diversity in politics and minority representation, particularly concerning the political inclusion of Muslims.