Morphological Discontinuity Under Climate Reclassification: A Compatibility-Based Adaptation Framework for Vernacular Courtyard Houses

High-resolution Köppen–Geiger projections indicate that several cold desert (BWk) regions are likely to transition toward hot desert (BWh) regimes during the twenty-first century, challenging the environmental logic of vernacular architecture. Despite extensive simulation-based research on passive cooling in established BWh contexts, limited attention has been given to climate-type transition zones and to the morphological continuity of traditional housing systems. This study investigates the adaptive capacity of Bukhara’s courtyard houses under projected BWk–BWh reclassification. Employing an analytical generalization approach, the research integrates systematic literature mapping, typological morphological analysis, and a threshold-based compatibility matrix. Findings reveal that climate transition produces a form of morphological discontinuity by weakening diurnal discharge assumptions embedded in high thermal mass systems. However, courtyard typologies retain a resilient passive core when recalibrated through microclimatic amplification strategies. The proposed staged adaptation framework contributes a heritage-sensitive decision model that reconciles climatic performance with spatial integrity, offering transferable guidance for cli-mate-intensifying desert regions.