Digital Economy and Per Capita Carbon Emissions: Evidence from Industrial Sectors in China

Population plays a central role in shaping carbon emissions. The digital economy development influences per capita emission reduction through mechanisms embedded in both the manufacturing sector and the consumption sector. However, empirical evidence on this relationship remains limited, which motivates further investigation. In this context, based on the data of provinces and industries, we examine how the digital economy development index (DEDI) affects per capita carbon emissions (PCCE) across Chinese industries. Using two-stage instrumental variable estimation, we find that DEDI significantly contributes to reducing PCCE, with an estimated coefficient of -0.226. By further analyzing the underlying mechanisms, it is shown that DEDI affects PCCE through channels in both the manufacturing sector and the consumption sector. In the manufacturing sector, DEDI reduces total carbon emissions by optimizing industrial structure and improving energy efficiency, thereby lowering PCCE. In the consumption sector, DEDI stimulates consumption-related structure upgrading and green technological innovation in consumption sectors, which in turn reduces PCCE. By integrating DEDI with the analysis of PCCE, this study provides empirical evidence on the pathways through which DEDI contributes to sustainable economic development.