Pacific Decadal Oscillation Modulates an Interdecadal Trans‐Pacific Dry‐Wet Seesaw in East Asian and North American Semi‐Arid Regions

Abstract Semi‐arid regions are expanding globally through divergent pathways: in East Asia (EA) via drying of semi‐humid lands, while in North America (NA) through wetting of arid areas. This interdecadal dry‐wet reversal across the Pacific has remained mechanistically unclear. Here we demonstrate that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) drives this climatic seesaw. Analysis of 1948–2022 data reveals the PDO explains approximately 21% of dry‐wet variance in EA and 63% in NA. We identify a trans‐Pacific teleconnection where PDO phase transitions generate key atmospheric anomalies—a summer Eurasian anticyclone and winter‐deepened Aleutian Low—that subsequently modify East Asian monsoons and westerly flows. This atmospheric reorganization alters moisture transport patterns, ultimately producing opposing hydroclimatic trends across the continents. Our work establishes a causal relationship between PDO phase shifts and interdecadal dry‐wet reversals, providing crucial mechanistic understanding for predicting long‐term hydroclimatic risks in vulnerable semi‐arid regions under natural climate variability.

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Publication Details

Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Published
2026-04-16
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl120943
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
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article

Pacific Decadal Oscillation Modulates an Interdecadal Trans‐Pacific Dry‐Wet Seesaw in East Asian and North American Semi‐Arid Regions

Xinya Shu, Fuxing Shi, Jinfei Sun, Shanshan Wang et al.
Geophysical Research Letters
Climate variability and models
article

Pacific Decadal Oscillation Modulates an Interdecadal Trans‐Pacific Dry‐Wet Seesaw in East Asian and North American Semi‐Arid Regions

Xinya Shu, Fuxing Shi, Jinfei Sun, Shanshan Wang, Jianping Huang
article en

Abstract

Abstract Semi‐arid regions are expanding globally through divergent pathways: in East Asia (EA) via drying of semi‐humid lands, while in North America (NA) through wetting of arid areas. This interdecadal dry‐wet reversal across the Pacific has remained mechanistically unclear. Here we demonstrate that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) drives this climatic seesaw. Analysis of 1948–2022 data reveals the PDO explains approximately 21% of dry‐wet variance in EA and 63% in NA. We identify a trans‐Pacific teleconnection where PDO phase transitions generate key atmospheric anomalies—a summer Eurasian anticyclone and winter‐deepened Aleutian Low—that subsequently modify East Asian monsoons and westerly flows. This atmospheric reorganization alters moisture transport patterns, ultimately producing opposing hydroclimatic trends across the continents. Our work establishes a causal relationship between PDO phase shifts and interdecadal dry‐wet reversals, providing crucial mechanistic understanding for predicting long‐term hydroclimatic risks in vulnerable semi‐arid regions under natural climate variability.

Geophysical Research LettersVol. 53(8)
Lanzhou University (CN)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 16%
Climate variability and models
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