Beyond conservation pessimism and optimism: a proactive, risk‐based approach to protect mangrove systems

Conservation has long operated reactively, intervening only after ecosystems begin to degrade. At the same time, growing attention to “conservation optimism” highlights successful interventions that offer hope for reversing ecological decline. To translate optimism into action, we present the Mangrove Threat Index (MTI), a spatially explicit, risk‐based framework designed to anticipate mangrove degradation before it occurs. Using proximity to anthropogenic pressures as a proxy for degradation risk, the MTI enables decision‐makers to identify vulnerable mangrove patches and prioritize early intervention. Applied to 530 mangrove patches across 13 global regions, the MTI correctly predicted 78% of observed losses between 2010 and 2020. A case study from La Paz, Mexico, illustrates how the index informed the co‐design of a passive conservation strategy with local stakeholders. Although developed for mangroves, the MTI framework can be adapted to other ecosystems facing land‐use pressures, offering a transferable and science‐based pathway toward proactive, place‐based conservation.