Single Sample Heuristics Under Uncertainty: From the Fermi Paradox to Cognitive Warfare

Human decision-making often relies on heuristic shortcuts, especially under conditions of uncertainty and incomplete information. Among these, Single Sample Heuristics—where individuals draw inferences from a single event or the absence of events—represents a particularly potent yet understudied bias. This review synthesizes theoretical and applied perspectives by connecting the Fermi Paradox as a naturalistic manifestation of this heuristic with Cognitive Warfare as its engineered exploitation in military and informational contexts. Drawing from cognitive psychology, decision science, and neuroscience, we explore how both domains reveal vulnerabilities in human reasoning, highlight the shared mechanisms that lead to overgeneralization from limited data, and propose strategies for cognitive resilience. By bridging a purely scientific problem with a tactical operational threat, we aim to illuminate the broader implications of single sample reasoning for both epistemic inquiry and strategic defense.